Book Review: “Hatchet Man” by Elie Honig

Former Attorney General William Barr’s misconduct in office has been well-documented. But it may take someone who worked as a federal prosecutor to fully appreciate the true nature and extent of the damage Barr did to the Department of Justice. Former federal prosecutor and now CNN senior legal analyst Elie Honig provides that perspective in a new book, “Hatchet Man: How Bill Barr Broke the Prosecutor’s Code and Corrupted the Justice Department.” It’s a sobering look back on Barr’s two-year assault on the very foundations of the Justice Department – an assault from which DOJ likely will need years to recover.

William Barr
Former Attorney General William Barr

The Prosecutor’s Code

Honig structures his book around what he calls the “prosecutor’s code” – core principles that guide the behavior of good prosecutors, such as impartiality, independence, owning up to mistakes, and keeping politics out of prosecutions. Honig believes a key reason Barr failed as Attorney General is that he has never worked as a federal prosecutor and never understood this prosecutor’s code.

An AG without prosecutorial experience could at least compensate by hiring top aides with that background. But as Honig points out, Barr didn’t do that either. His Deputy Attorney General and Assistant Attorney General – the number two and three spots at the department – likewise had no prosecutorial experience. Even the assistant attorney general for the criminal division had no experience as a criminal prosecutor. That’s sort of like a hospital hiring a dermatologist to be the head of open heart surgery.

Barr spent most of his career as a civil attorney. A civil litigator’s job is to win – to get the best possible outcome for the client, within the bounds of law and ethics, regardless of what might objectively appear just or fair. But prosecutors have a higher obligation. As one of Honig’s supervisors told him early in his career, good prosecutors don’t do “wins and losses.” Their duty is to see that justice is done and to protect the justice system. Barr, having never been a prosecutor, never appreciated this.

Another reviewer took issue with this argument, noting that prosecutorial experience does not guarantee respect for the rule of law. She cited as an example former federal prosecutor Sydney Powell, the infamous lawyer in Trump’s “Kraken” lawsuits challenging the election who now faces professional sanctions. But this misses Honig’s point. He’s not claiming that having been a prosecutor will automatically make you a good Attorney General. He’s arguing that it’s awfully difficult to be a good Attorney General without that experience. I think he’s right about that, and I agree it’s part of the reason Barr was such a disaster. It became clear during Barr’s tenure that he simply did not “get” the Department that he led. He was too willing to view DOJ as simply another political institution, and his own power as a means to achieve political ends.

Spinning the Mueller Report

One of Barr’s most egregious actions as attorney general – and one of the biggest favors he did for president Trump — was his dishonest handling of the Mueller report. Honig walks us through the entire shameful episode. It began, of course, before Barr was even hired as attorney general, when as a private citizen he wrote an unsolicited nineteen page memo to DOJ arguing that Mueller’s investigation was “fatally misconceived.” Honig refers to this as Barr’s “audition memo” for the attorney general position. Once Barr got the job, he did not disappoint the man who hired him.

A mere two days after receiving Mueller’s 400-plus page report, Barr held a press conference and released a four page letter to Congress purporting to summarize it. He successfully “spun” the report and misled the public about Mueller’s conclusions. He failed to release the summaries Mueller had prepared that would have given the full picture. By the time the redacted report was made public weeks later, Trump’s claims that Mueller had found “no obstruction, no collusion” had firmly taken hold in the public consciousness – aided by Barr’s misleading conduct.

Many, including Honig, have been critical of Mueller and the way he handled his report. But the irony is that Mueller actually was following that prosecutor’s code to which Honig refers. Mueller played by the rules, kept politics out of his decisions, and followed the facts where they led. His mistake, and perhaps his naivete, was in assuming that his boss, the nation’s top prosecutor, would follow that same code. Instead, Barr seized the opening Mueller gave him and stuck a knife in Mueller’s back.

Roger Stone
Roger Stone

The Flynn and Stone Cases

None of Barr’s actions demonstrated his failure to understand the prosecutor’s code more than his personal interventions in the cases of Trump allies Roger Stone and Michael Flynn. In the Flynn case, Barr’s DOJ took the unprecedented step of trying to drop the charges after Flynn had already pleaded guilty, taking laughable legal positions that contradicted decades of legal precedent. In Stone’s case, after prosecutors, with their supervisor’s approval, filed a memorandum arguing for a sentence within the recommended guideline range, Barr personally intervened to overrule them and argue for a lower sentence

In both cases the front line prosecutors withdrew in protest, an act that, as Honig notes, is almost unheard of. Those prosecutors had put their credibility on the line before the federal judge every time they appeared in those cases. They took legal positions consistent with precedent and prior practice and with the approval of their supervisors. And then they had their legs cut out from under them by the attorney general himself. Withdrawing was their only honorable option. If Barr had ever stood before a federal judge as a prosecutor, perhaps he would have understood that.

Honig also recounts Barr’s attempt to explain away these actions in an outrageous speech he made towards the end of his tenure. Barr argued that allowing decisions of lower level employees to be sacrosanct might be a “good philosophy for a Montesorri school, but it’s no way to run a federal agency.” In addition to infantilizing the thousands of career DOJ employees who worked for him, this argument completely missed the point. Of course the attorney general has the authority to overrule decisions made by line prosecutors. But these prosecutors had not “gone rogue” – their actions were approved by the relevant supervisors. And as Honig notes, the key question remains: out of the tens of thousands of criminal cases prosecuted by DOJ each year, why did Barr personally intervene only in the two cases that involved close allies of president Trump – allies who could potentially implicate the president himself in criminal activity?

The Sovereign District of New York

Honig also analyzes the bizarre incident where Barr tried to replace the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Geoffrey Berman, with a Trump loyalist. After Barr initially said Berman was “stepping down,” Berman denied it. Barr was then forced to ask Trump to fire Berman.

Honig claims this episode demonstrates that Trump and Barr feared Honig’s former office, the SDNY, and had to try to bring it under control. He notes the office’s famous nickname, the “Sovereign District of New York,” and recounts how an article in The New Yorker once referred to SDNY prosecutors as the “killer elite.” Honig claims the members of the office relished that characterization, saying he personally “goddamn loved it.” He says the SDNY prides itself on its willingness to flaunt the rules from “Main Justice” in Washington and chart its own course. “What other federal prosecutor’s office,” he argues, “has the guts to take on cases that could harm the president of the United States?”

According to Honig the most important aspect of SDNY independence, and the reason Trump had cause for worry, is that the SDNY “simply does not do partisan politics.” He says he never once heard of political considerations influencing a case. I believe that – but the same is true of any good U.S. Attorney’s office. I experienced the same thing during my own career at the D.C U.S. Attorney’s office, which sees more than its share of politically-charged investigations. The prosecutor’s code that Honig describes requires that all prosecutions be apolitical. It’s odd for Honig to suggest this somehow sets the SDNY apart.

In any event, the facts unfortunately don’t support Honig’s claims about his old office. For example, the SDNY apparently was ready to execute search warrants for Rudy Giuliani’s records some time in 2020. A truly “sovereign” office might have anticipated that Barr’s DOJ would object and simply gone ahead with the warrants – following the old adage, “it’s better to ask forgiveness than to ask permission.” But that didn’t happen. Barr’s DOJ successfully prevented the warrants from being executed. Only after the Biden Justice Department was in charge did the searches take place – after Giuliani had months to prepare for them.

Similarly, when Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to a campaign finance violation for the Stormy Daniels payoff, he famously said the president himself – “Individual #1” – directed him to commit the crime. If Trump acted willfully, that would make him equally as guilty as Cohen. Given the DOJ policy against indicting a sitting president, perhaps the SDNY could not reasonably be expected to charge Trump while he was in office. But a truly “sovereign” office might at least have confirmed Trump was culpable by, for example, naming him as an unindicted co-conspirator. In any event, Trump left office six months ago, losing the shield of that DOJ policy — and still no charges.

It was New York state prosecutors, not the SDNY, who investigated the potential financial crimes by the Trump organization and waged the successful battle to obtain Trump’s tax returns. And it was state prosecutors who charged the Trump Organization and its CFO Alan Weisselberg with tax fraud – even though the largest portion of that alleged fraud involved federal tax offenses that could have been pursued by the SDNY.

Honig is a proud alum of the SDNY and perhaps can be forgiven for the paean to his old office. But the truth is the “sovereign district” did no better than the rest of the Department of Justice at resisting the Trump/Barr onslaught. And it’s a bit jarring that Honig fails to recognize that the sort of macho swagger he describes as the office’s culture does not rest very comfortably with his own “prosecutor’s code,” which includes such traits as humility.

Other Examples of Barr’s Misconduct

Honig walks us through a number of other troubling incidents as well, including Barr’s failure to investigate and attempts to conceal Trump’s actions in connection with Ukraine (the misconduct that ultimately resulted in his first impeachment); Barr’s role in the incident in Lafayette park where protestors were gassed to make room for a Trump photo-op; and Barr’s decision to appoint Connecticut U.S. Attorney John Durham to “investigate the investigators” by probing the basis for the original Russia investigation. Overall, the book is a harrowing review of a tumultuous two years. It’s remarkable how much damage Barr was able to do in such a short period of time.

Honig concludes with proposals for nine reforms to help the Justice Department restore its public standing. Some have already taken place. For example, he calls for new rules governing communications between DOJ and the White House. Last week Attorney General Merrick Garland issued such rules.

The Barr Enigma: Why Did He Do It?

When Barr was first appointed to be attorney general, many Trump critics were cautiously optimistic. Honig, as he admits, was one of them. So was I. Barr was conservative, of course, but he had a reputation as a serious person and had done the job before. He seemed like someone who could be trusted to preserve and uphold the principles that guide the Justice Department. Instead, he did something I would have thought impossible: he left us pining for his predecessor, Jeff Sessions.

So why did Barr do it? Honig offers three possible explanations: a simple lust for power, a desire to implement his own expansive views on executive authority, and a religious desire to combat secularism. But Honig doesn’t really spend much time trying to grapple with Barr’s motivations, and the attempt to link Barr’s actions to his religious views, in particular, seems strained. The book sometimes has an almost knee-jerk, “Barr = bad” feel to it. I think the truth is more complicated.  

Consider, for example, Barr’s actions after the election, when Trump and his allies were claiming the election was stolen. It’s true Barr made some halfhearted remarks about investigating voter fraud. But in the end he refused to endorse Trump’s claims about the election and told Trump the arguments were “bullshit.” Imagine if Barr had been a Rudy Giuliani, backing Trump’s claims with the full power of the Department of Justice? Trump may well have succeeded in overturning the election.

Honig chalks this up to simple self-interest: Barr’s attempt to get off the sinking Trump ship and preserve his own legacy. Maybe that’s correct. But the fact remains that, in the end, Barr did the right thing. To paraphrase Shakespeare, nothing in Barr’s career as attorney general became him like the leaving it. But after being willing to drive DOJ into a ditch for two years, it’s fascinating that Barr decided to turn the wheel at the last minute.

As Honig note, Barr was not a classic Trump MAGA sycophant, doing whatever it takes to please the president. But then what explains Barr’s intervention in the Flynn and Stone cases? That seemed all about feeding Trump’s “witch hunt” persecution fantasy. Why did Barr step in, particularly when he must have known that Trump would almost certainly pardon both men in the end? Rationales such as seeking to maximize executive power don’t really explain it.

Other incidents also raise unexplored complexities. For example, Honig criticizes Barr’s decision to have the Department of Justice defend Trump in the defamation suit brought by E. Jean Carroll, a woman who claims Trump raped her in the 1990’s. But as I wrote here, that was probably the correct decision in terms of protecting all executive branch employees from future private lawsuits. After Honig’s book went to press, attorney general Merrick Garland came to the same conclusion and decided to continue the defense. That doesn’t mean it’s the right decision, of course, but at a minimum it suggests the matter is more nuanced than Honig lets on.

To me, Barr’s behavior is really a puzzle. But we will have to await future authors to perhaps probe more deeply not just what Barr did, but what explains it.

Conclusion

In this cynical age it’s tempting to dismiss the ideals Honig describes as the “prosecutor’s code” as fanciful platitudes. It’s easy to claim the Department of Justice is just about power and politics, like almost everything else in Washington. Good prosecutors like Honig, and like the thousands of others who were appalled by Barr’s actions and registered their protests during his tenure, know this is not true. They recognize the critical role of the prosecutor in our system of justice and the importance of the code that good prosecutors follow. And they recognize the dangers that arise when that code is ignored or subverted.

Barr’s actions poured fuel on the fires of public cynicism about the justice system. It’s now the job of the Garland Justice Department to try to quell those fires and begin the long, slow process of restoring DOJ’s reputation. It remains to be seen whether that is possible or whether the damage done by Barr was too extensive. The DOJ faced similar challenges after the damage done during the Watergate scandal. Honig’s book provides an important review of a history we must remember if we are not to be doomed to repeat the same mistakes yet again.

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The Looming Presidential Pardons

Despite the frivolous lawsuits and cries that the election was “stolen,” president Trump will leave office on January 20, 2021. Almost as certain as his departure is that he will grant a flurry of pardons on his way out the door, perhaps including trying to pardon himself. Given the breadth of the pardon power, there is little that can be done about that. Such pardons, even if controversial, will almost certainly be valid – with the possible exception of a self-pardon. But despite his anticipated best efforts, Trump will not be able to completely shield his family and colleagues – or himself – from future legal liability.

Source and Scope of the Pardon Power

Article II, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution gives the president the power “to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.” This clause traces its roots to the power to grant clemency that English kings had for centuries. It’s an important part of our system of checks and balances, allowing the president to correct mistakes or perceived excesses in the justice system or simply to grant forgiveness in appropriate cases. Other than excluding impeachment, the Constitution contains no limits on this presidential power.

Although often referred to by the shorthand “pardon power,” this clause gives the president the ability to grant other forms of clemency as well, such as a commutation or reduction of sentence. For example, in the recent case of Roger Stone, president Trump commuted Stone’s 40-month sentence to keep him out of prison but did not grant him a full pardon. Similarly, president George W. Bush commuted the sentence of White House aide Scooter Libby for his role in the Valerie Plame/CIA leak case but refused to grant Libby a pardon, despite the vigorous objections of Libby’s boss, Dick Cheney.

A pardon represents presidential forgiveness for federal crimes that have been, or may have been, committed. It does not expunge any convictions or seal the recipient’s record, and the recipient still stands convicted. But a pardon removes collateral consequences that may flow from a conviction, such as restrictions on the right to own a firearm or the right to vote. A person whose sentence is commuted but who is not pardoned still bears those other consequences. That’s why someone who has merely had their sentence commuted might seek a full pardon later. Trump pardoned Scooter Libby a decade after Bush had refused to do so, and it seems likely Trump will pardon Stone now that the election is over.

Another difference is that a commutation or reduction of sentence can only come into play if the recipient has actually been convicted and sentenced to some form of punishment. A pardon, on the other hand, may be granted even if a person has not yet been convicted of anything – Gerald Ford’s pardon of Richard Nixon being the most famous example.

A presidential pardon may only cover crimes that have already been committed. A president cannot grant a sort of prospective immunity, authorizing someone to engage in future criminal acts by granting them a blanket pardon.

Most significantly for Trump, the president may only grant pardons for federal crimes. He cannot pardon anyone for state offenses.  If an individual receives a presidential pardon, a state generally is still free to prosecute that individual for the same acts if they also constitute state crimes.

Trump’s Use of the Pardon Power

Trump’s use of the pardon power has been controversial. For the most part, he has bypassed the system set up within the Department of Justice and the Office of the Pardon Attorney for reviewing petitions for clemency. He has been more likely to grant clemency based on appeals by a Fox News host, political ally, or other personal connection. His more controversial pardons include Libby, Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and conservative activist Dinesh D’Souza. He was roundly condemned, including by many in the military, for pardoning soldiers convicted of committing war crimes in Afghanistan, after their cause was promoted on Fox News. Trump also commuted the sentence of former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, who was serving a fourteen-year sentence after being convicted of multiple counts of corruption.

Former president Bill Clinton
Former president Bill Clinton

Pardons as a President Leaves Office

It’s not unusual for presidents to grant a number pardons as they are getting ready to leave office. Some of those pardons have been controversial. Bill Clinton pardoned fugitive financier Mark Rich on his last day in office. The FBI later investigated that pardon based on allegations it may have been granted in exchange for large donations to Democrats and the Clinton presidential library by Rich and his wife, although no criminal charges were ever filed. Clinton also pardoned his own brother, Roger, for a minor drug offense.

As he was about to leave office, George H.W. Bush pardoned six defendants about to go to trial over the Iran-Contra affair, including former defense secretary Casper Weinberger. Independent counsel Lawrence Walsh was outraged, suggesting the pardons might constitute obstruction of justice and that Bush acted to prevent information about his own involvement in the scandal from being revealed. (In an interesting historical twist, Bush’s move was supported by then-attorney general William Barr.)

So Trump certainly would not be the first president to raise some eyebrows with his parting pardons. But no previous president has ever had the potential to pardon so many of his own family members or close associates, including many who could potentially implicate the president himself in criminal activity. And no president has tried to pardon himself – although Nixon reportedly considered it.

Michael Flynn
Michael Flynn

Who Might Receive a Pardon?

The Mueller Defendants

The first likely recipients of a Trump pardon are those convicted as a result of the Mueller investigation. Trump, of course, has repeatedly attacked that investigation. His attorney general, William Barr, misled the public about Mueller’s report and has worked to undermine prosecutions that resulted, including by seeking to dismiss the Michael Flynn case and intervening in the sentencing of Roger Stone. It would be easy for Trump to justify these pardons by claiming they were all the result of the illegitimate Mueller “witch hunt.” Such pardons would have the added benefit for Trump of rewarding those who could potentially implicate him in wrongdoing and ensuring their continued loyalty.

Flynn seems like a prime candidate for such a pardon. Barr’s DOJ has tried to drop the charges against him after he pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI. The case remains mired in litigation over whether the trial judge must grant the government’s flawed motion to dismiss. By moving to drop the charges, Barr tried to free Flynn while allowing Trump to avoid taking the political heat of granting a pardon prior to the election. Now that the election is over, those political concerns are gone. Given the history, it frankly would be shocking if Trump did not pardon Flynn.

Roger Stone is another likely candidate. Trump commuted his sentence as he was about to report to jail, but now that the election is over look for Trump to bump that commutation up to a full pardon. Stone remained loyal by lying to Congress to protect Trump and refusing to cooperate even when prosecuted for those lies. Expect him to be further rewarded with a full pardon.

The outlook for other Mueller defendants is more cloudy. At times Trump has expressed sympathy for his former campaign manager Paul Manafort, who was convicted of money laundering and related financial crimes based on his work in Ukraine. Manafort pleaded guilty in a second case and agreed to cooperate with Mueller, but ended up lying to Mueller’s investigators. Trump and Manafort were reportedly never that close, but Trump might still pardon him just to take a shot at Mueller. The same is true for deputy campaign manager Rick Gates. Other lesser Russiagate players such as George Papadopoulos might be pardoned as well, again if for no other reason than to try to erase any results of the Mueller probe.

Other Former Insiders

Trump’s former personal attorney Michael Cohen almost certainly does not expect a pardon. Cohen was convicted of fraud and other charges in New York in a case that was spun off from the Mueller probe. His plea notably included a campaign finance charge for the payoff to Stormy Daniels that Cohen says was made at Trump’s direction. He potentially has a great deal of information that could implicate the president. But Cohen has completely turned against Trump, writing a harshly critical book and regularly criticizing him on cable news. He has said he doesn’t want a pardon, and he’s almost certainly going to get his wish.

Other former insiders have legal troubles of their own, but have also fallen out of Trump’s favor. For example, former presidential advisor Steve Bannon is now facing a federal fraud indictment for his involvement in a bogus fundraising scheme related to building Trump’s border wall. Bannon was once the consummate insider, but has also been critical of Trump since leaving the White House. Don’t expect him to receive any presidential clemency.

Donald Trump Jr.
Donald Trump Jr.

Trump Family Members

Up to this point we’ve been considering those who have already been charged or convicted. But Trump could also pardon individuals who have not yet been charged with anything, including members of his own family. For example, he could issue pardons for his son Don Jr. and son-in-law Jared Kushner for any crimes committed in connection with the 2016 presidential campaign and possible cooperation with Russia in its efforts to influence that campaign, or for any cover-up crimes related to the later investigations by Mueller and by Congress.

It’s not clear Don Jr. or Kushner want or need any such pardons; Mueller did not find that they had any criminal liability. But Mueller was not able to obtain all the information that he sought, and other facts could come to light under a new administration. Trump might be interested in issuing a sort of prophylactic pardon for any criminal acts related to Russia, the campaign, or the subsequent investigations, just as a precaution. On the other hand, he might conclude that issuing such pardons could make it sound like there was something to the “Russia hoax” after all.

Those who have not been charged or convicted could be reluctant to accept a pardon because they might think it would mean admitting they had done something  wrong. But as I discussed in this earlier post, the view that accepting a pardon means you are admitting  guilt is now generally discredited. For example, if a president were to pardon someone convicted of murder and then exonerated by DNA evidence, we clearly wouldn’t say that defendant is admitting he is guilty if he accepts the pardon. Trump family members and associates could easily claim they have done nothing wrong but will accept the pardons just to prevent a future, vindictive Democratic administration from pursuing baseless allegations.

Other Possible Pardons

There are other investigations that Trump could potentially try to head off by granting pardons. Not all of them are public, so it’s hard to know the full scope of what he could do here. For example, an investigation into financial misconduct related to the 2016 Trump inauguration may still be pending in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York. There could be other investigations pending within that office related to potential financial crimes by the Trump Organization. Presidential attorney Rudy Giuliani is reportedly still under investigation for some of his overseas business activities. To the extent there are such investigation still ongoing, Trump could short-circuit them by simply pardoning everyone who is under scrutiny.

Could Granting the Pardons Be a Crime?

It’s legally possible for granting a pardon to be a criminal act;  for example, if a president granted a pardon in exchange for a bribe. During the Mueller investigation there were allegations that Trump attorneys had dangled the possibility of pardons in front of witnesses to encourage them not to cooperate. As I wrote here, had that been established I think it could constitute bribery. Similarly, granting a pardon to head off an investigation into the president himself could potentially constitute obstruction of justice. But at this late stage, proving the requisite corrupt intent to make any of Trump’s parting pardons a potential crime would be extremely difficult.

Can Trump Pardon Himself?

The great unanswered question is whether Trump can pardon himself. Trump has claimed he has that right, but most legal experts disagree. The Office of Legal Counsel in Nixon’s Department of Justice opined that a president could not self-pardon. But no court has ever ruled on the question, and that OLC opinion is not binding on Trump. He could be the first president to test this legal proposition.  

For example, Trump could pardon himself for any obstruction of justice he may have committed during the Mueller investigation – probably his most clear-cut criminal exposure. If a Biden Department of Justice then tried to indict him for that obstruction – a big “if” — Trump would raise the pardon as a defense and move to dismiss. That would seem like a legal question destined to be decided by the Supreme Court.

Again, Trump may be reluctant to grant himself a pardon if he thinks it makes him look guilty. But he could easily rationalize it by saying he has done nothing wrong but needs to protect him from future unjustified “witch hunts.”

Trump and Pence
Mike Pence with President Trump

The Possible Pence Gambit

Trump could also engage in some more complicated gymnastics to seek to ensure that he receives a valid pardon. For example, he could resign the presidency prior to Biden’s inauguration. Mike Pence would then become president, with the power to pardon Trump.

Imagine this scenario: Over the next few weeks, Trump pardons his family members, associates, and anyone else who needs it, perhaps including Pence himself. Trump then resigns on the morning  of January 20, a few hours before Biden is inaugurated. Pence is sworn in and becomes president for the morning, and issues the pardon to Trump. It sounds crazy, but a lot of crazy things have happened over the past four years.

Trump could also act under the 25th Amendment to declare himself temporarily unable to perform the duties of president. That would make Pence the acting president until Trump declares himself fit again, and Pence could grant the pardon.  Of course, if Trump’s declaration was found to be a fabrication, that could call any such pardon into question.

It’s unclear whether Trump is interested in pardoning himself, or whether he would be willing to take the more dramatic step of resigning early to allow Pence to pardon him. It’s also unclear whether Pence, who has to think about his own political future, would agree to go along.

State Charges and Civil Cases

The most ominous aspect of all this for Trump is his inability to grant pardons for state charges. New York District Attorney Cyrus Vance has been conducting a grand jury investigation of Trump and the Trump Organization for the past couple of years and has been fighting to obtain Trump’s tax returns. The Supreme Court ruled in his favor last spring; the matter is now back before the Court and he is likely to prevail once again.  Vance has indicated that possible charges include not just the Stormy Daniels hush money payments but also bank fraud, insurance fraud, or tax fraud.

These potential state charges pose a real risk to Trump, and as president he can’t really do anything about them. If he does end up facing any criminal charges after he leaves office, New York state is the most likely source.

Trump also can’t pardon his way out of the many civil cases against him that may be pending or may be brought in the future, such as the defamation case by E. Jean Carroll, a woman who claims Trump sexually assaulted her. These can’t result in criminal convictions, of course, but could require Trump to pay damages or face other civil sanctions.

It will be very interesting to see what Trump does in the next couple of months. The expected flurry of pardons may turn out to be maddening and even shocking – another entry in the catalogue of outrages from this administration. But despite the awesome power of the presidency, Trump will be unable to shield himself and those around him from all potential legal consequences after he leaves office.

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